It is still weird to believe that the two teams that are left in the NBA season are the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns. We can question the legitimacy of how these two teams made it to the finals, but these two teams still earned it. Game 1 is now complete.
Prior to the game, I was curious of the potential matchup assignments for both teams. Giannis coming back so quickly changed things a little bit. In the beginning of the game, Ayton start off on Antetokounmpo, and Crowder was on Lopez when Milwaukee had the ball. When Phoenix had the ball, Milwaukee put Tucker on Paul and Holiday was on Booker. Those matchups was expected coming into this series.
Milwaukee switched majority of the Suns' pick and roll in the first half. Because of that, it left Lopez and Portis on an island with Paul or Booker. The switching strategy worked out great for the Bucks in the last series versus the Hawks, especially the last two games. The Hawks perimeter guys just could not exploit those matchups consistently enough to force the Bucks to make an adjustment. I do not believe the switching strategy can work versus Phoenix. Chris Paul and Devin Booker are too good, and they will exploit it like they did tonight. And unlike Capela, Ayton can dominate smaller players off the switch with his relentlessness on the offensive glass.
In the second half, Milwaukee went back to their usual drop coverage with Lopez, and switch everything with Portis at the 5 in the third quarter. The drop coverage gets overly criticized. It is actually a good strategy versus most teams. Most teams selection of shots are primarying two things: corner 3s and shots at the rim. That is the new NBA. With the drop coverage, it limits the opposing team shots at the restricted area and it limits three point shots in the corner. Teams will be content of giving midrange shots and 3s at the top of the key. Yes, it is a hard strategy to excel. You need a guard who is willing to fight like hell off screens. And you need a big who knows the balance of not dropping too far, so the ball handler can't get an uncontested 10 foot jump shot and not coming too close because it can potentially lead to an easy ally oop to the roll man. Draymond is the best in the league of knowing the balance and also knowing the tendency of the ball handler. I just wanted to set that straight because everyone is acting like the drop coverage is the worst defensive scheme ever. It is actually an effective strategy if a team execute it properly. Ask James Harden about that strategy in the 2017 playoffs versus the Spurs.
If you're a good midrange shooting team or have a great midrange shooter, the drop coverage can be exploited. Paul and Booker are great midrange shooters. They took advantage of it and extend their lead. The drop coverage versus Phoenix will not work unless Lopez finds that balance like he did in game 2 versus the Hawks. Lopez needs to use his length as an advantage.
Finally, Milwaukee put Giannis at the 5 and went small to start the fourth quarter. I personally believe that is their best lineup. Even with that lineup, the Suns can attack Forbes and Connaughton on defense. This is the problem with the Bucks in this series: they just do not have depth to matchup with the Suns. This is where they're missing Donte Divincenzo. He's not a great player, but he's a body that can defend Paul or Booker for a possession here and there. The small lineup for the Bucks was a plus 4 in net rating tonight. It was effective. Offensively, I think they should use more of a pick and roll tandem of Jrue and Giannis. Most likely, Booker, Paul or even Payne will be guarding Holiday. It can force switches that Phoenix may not want like Paul or Booker on Antetokounmpo in the paint. The floor will be spread with shooting so that can give Giannis more room to operate in the paint. Phoenix can be creative and slide Crowder onto Holiday and switch the pick with Ayton and trust Ayton can hold up in the perimeter with Holiday, especially late in the shot clock. I still believe Milwaukee need to use this lineup more. They can alternate minutes between Tucker and Connaughton.
The Suns were amazing tonight. Their pick and roll game was great tonight. It is great every almost night. They have been my favorite team to watch all season. I am glad people is getting to see how good they are. I believe the Suns are the better team. I thought this was a five game series not knowing if Giannis will be back or not. Milwaukee needs to make some adjustments on how to defend the Suns' lethal pick and roll. They will. I think we will see the Bucks trap Booker and Paul more in the pick and roll. I think the Bucks should go zone at times against them. It takes away some the actions the Suns like to run. It worked for the Clippers at times in the last series. The Bucks need to push the pace every chance they get. Milwaukee is a great fastbreaking team. Phoenix love to have a shooter in each corner in most possession. Phoenix is rank second in most corner 3s attempted in the playoffs, according to Basketball Reference. A way to exploit that is to push the ball off their misses. Phoenix is a good transition defensive team because most of their get back on defense instead of crashing the offensive glass except for Ayton, but it is something Milwaukee should do. It can give them easy shots and cheap points and get some of their guys going like Jrue Holiday. With Giannis around 75-80% of himself, I can see this series going seven games. I will go in the middle and say Suns in 6.
Sources
2021 NBA Playoffs Summary. (2011). Basketball-Reference.Com. https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2021.html
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