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Fantasy football

 

Football season is about to start, and it is about that time to get ready for fantasy football. Down the road, I will talk about my draft strategy. I am normally pretty good in drafting a good team, so it might be helpful for some. I normally do PPR (points per reception) leagues. Here though, I am going to list some guys I am either really high on this year. 


QB Josh Allen: Buffalo Bills 


Josh Allen is a top 3 fantasy quarterback heading into this season. I believe Allen will finish the season as the number one fantasy quarterback. He had a tremendous year last season. I believe Allen will be the first QB in NFL history to throw for 45 touchdowns and have 10 rushing touchdowns this upcoming season. He’s my pick to win MVP. Allen is their whole offense. The Bills don’t either bother to run the ball, and I don’t see any indication that will change this season. He has a great receiving core (I would not surprise if they trade for Zach Ertz), and a good offensive line. The new highly paid quarterback is about to take another leap this season.


QB Trey Lance and QB Justin Fields: San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears 


Fields and Lance will probably not start the season as the starting quarterback for their respective teams when the season begins. I believe they will start as some point during the season. The probability seems more higher with Fields than Lance. Both rookie quarterbacks had some good moments so far in the preseason. If they both end up starting for their respective teams, I like Lance a little more than Fields for better fantasy production because of the team he plays with and the coach that will be calling plays. Fields and Lance are worth taking in the last round in your fantasy draft. The last round is where normally people draft players who they’re most likely going to drop within the first two weeks of the season. So what not take a chance with rookie quarterbacks and keep them on your bench? 


RB Mike Davis: Atlanta Falcons 


I like him more for volume, not necessarily for the potential production. Davis is unequivocally the Falcons’ number one running back. The Falcons’ have a chance to be a good offensive team this season even without Julio Jones. I like the offensive scheme new coach Arthur Smith brings to the table. I also like Davis because of his value in ADP (average draft position). Davis ADP is 89.7th. Josh Jacob’s is 40.7th. I believe the production of those two players will be close to the same and you can draft Davis fifty picks later. I believe Davis can be a mid level RB2 this season.



WR Tyler Lockett: Seattle Seahawks 


Tyler Lockett’s ADP is 50th in espn leagues, which I find fucking insane. That’s the fifth round. Last year, Lockett had 100 catches, over 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns. His teammate, DK Metcalf, had 83 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 touchdowns. Their fantasy production was around the same. D.K Metcak is getting drafted in the second round in most drafts, while Lockett is getting drafted three rounds later. Lockett was a low end WR1 last season. His reception numbers have gone up each of the last four seasons. He has caught double digit touchdowns two of the last three seasons. Yes, I know he is not consistent. He will drive you fucking crazy, and take ten years off your life. You got to take the good and the bad with him because of his end of season production, especially if you can get him in the fifth round. That is high value. 


WR Corey Davis: New York Jets


The former top 5 pick had his best season last year of the team that drafted him, the Tennessee Titans. Davis signed a big new contract with his new team, the New York Jets,  this past offseason. He is the team new number one receiver. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson has forced feed Davis the ball so far in preseason. That’s a good sign who is intrigued of drafting Davis. Most likely, Davis will have over 100 targets for the Jets, so the volume will be there. Davis ADP is 106th in espn leagues. That’s the tenth round. If things goes right, I believe Davis can be a low end WR2, which is a steal to get that late in the draft. 


TE Tyler Higbee: Los Angeles Rams


Higbee is a talented TE. Former Rams TE, Gerald Everett, is no longer with the team. Now Higbee is the unequivocally the Rams’ number one TE. Here’s some numbers Higbee put up in games that Everett did not play:


In 2019 (the last five games)


8 Tgt, 7 rec, 107 yds, 1 TD

11 Tgt, 7 rec, 116 yds, 0 TD

14 Tgt, 12 rec, 111 yds, 0 TD

11 Tgt, 9 rec, 104 yds, 0 TD

12 Tgt, 8 Rec, 84 yds, 1 TD


In 2020 

5 Tgt, 5 rec, 54 yds, 3 TDs 


What I’m basically saying is that when Everett doesn’t play, Higbee plays like high end TE1. I am not saying he is going to reach the status of Kelce, Waller and Kittle, but he can be really good this year with no Everett and better quarterback play with Stafford instead of Golf.


Sources 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/


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