Paul George is scheduled to become a free agent this offseason. George wants a 4 year max contract extension worth up to $221 million from his current team the Los Angeles Clippers. Paul George is probably the best free agent available this free agency and will have plenty of suitors for his talents. For this paper, I will reflect on the journey of George’s career up until this point. I will discuss whether or not Paul George is worth the max offer based on performance recently and future performances as he ages through his mid to late 30s. I will compare George to players that were in similar situations like him based on performance and current age. I will mention the risk of losing Paul George if you are the Clippers this offseason, but also the risk/reward of signing him if you are the Clippers or any other team.
Paul George will be entering his 15th season heading into the next season. He was the 10th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He was without a doubt the best player in that draft. He spent his 7 seasons with the Indiana Pacers. For a couple of seasons, the Indiana Pacers gave the Lebron-led Miami Heat team a formidable opponent in the Eastern Conference. The core players of those Indiana teams did not last for much longer within their respective teams, and George was looking for a change. George was traded to Oklahoma City on July 6, 2018 for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis.
George spent two seasons in Oklahoma City. He arguably had his peak season in his final season with the team. George had a career high in points per game (28.0), rebounding (8.2), free throw attempts (7), win shares (11.9), win shares per 48 minutes (.201), and value over replacement player (6.6). Paul finished top 3 in MVP ballot, top 3 in defensive player of the year ballot, and he made 1st team all NBA. It was his lone season throughout his career that he accomplished any of those kinds of accolades.
After that great season with Oklahoma City, George was traded to the Los Angeles Clippers in a historic trade in July of 2019. The Thunder in the deal got in return Shai Gilgeous Alexander, draft picks which turned out to be Jalen Williams and Jaime Jaquez Jr. of the Heat, and more draft picks all the way up to 2026. The reason for the huge package was that if the Clippers get George, they will also sign Kawhi Leonard as a free agent. Kawhi, who was coming off a historic championship playoff run with the Toronto Raptors, wanted to play with George, and he was recruiting Paul to come to LA with him because they are both from California.
Paul George has been with the Clippers for five seasons. The word I think of during his tenure with the team is ‘misfortune’ mainly due to injuries of his own and of his teammate Kawhi Leonard. During his tenure with the Clippers, George never played more than 60 games in a season with one of the seasons being a 62 game season because of Covid. He missed the 2023 playoffs due to a right knee sprain. With a team that had championship hopes the day they traded for him and signed Kawhi, they only made it past the second round once and never made it to the finals. He is now entering free agency. What should the Clippers do, and what is Paul George worth in the open market?
Here is why I think he deserves the maximum contract offer: he had his most win shares in his 5 seasons with the team and his best VORP season. Last season he played his most games in five seasons with 74 games played. He averaged 22.6 points per game while setting a career high in field goal percentage and free throw percentage. His usage was lower, but he was still effective and efficient which is always a good sign. The team was drastically better when he was on the court than off the floor. The Clippers’ offensive rating dropped nine points per 100 possessions when he was off the court. Their defense was 5.3 points per 100 possessions worse when he was off the court. Paul George has always been and still is now an elite two way player. Paul George was in all of the Clippers’ best lineups based on net rating per 100 possessions. He made the all star team, and he should have made the All NBA team over Lebron and Booker.
Even though I believe he deserves the max contract, there is a risk of signing him. He will be making an average of $55.27 million a year through his age 37 season if he gets the max. He is 33 with injury history, including a tibia fracture in the 2014 Olympics. Worst case scenario: this turns into a Blake Griffin situation when his body began to betray him as he got older. Ironically enough, Paul George and Blake Griffin have a similarity score of 92.9, according to basketball reference. As great of an offensive player George is, he has not been consistently good in the playoffs throughout his career. He has had some awesome games and series, but also some head scratching ones that leave people with a lot of questions about how good he is. It would be risky giving a guy all of that money for whom you do not feel all the way confident coming through in high stakes games all the way through June.
To wrap this up, I would say again that Paul George deserves the max contract offer. He is still an elite two way player even for his age. Injury history is a concern, but players like him are so valuable in this new NBA because of his defensive versatility, his ability to be an offensive creator on the ball, and his ability to be efficient off ball. He is still one of the 25 best players in the league. If the expectation is to compete for championships like the Clippers say they are pursuing, a player of his status increases your chances of potentially raising the Larry O’Brian Trophy.
Comments
Post a Comment